Plausible Scenarios for Iranian Theater on the 2041 Horizon

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Performing Arts, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Professor, Higher Education Development Planning Department, Higher Education Planning and Development, Institute for Higher Education Research and Planning.

3 Assistant Professor, Futures Studies Department, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

4 PhD student, Department of Theater, Faculty of Fine Arts, University of Tehran

Abstract

In the contemporary world, defined by rapid technological changes, generational shifts, and socio-political complexities, cultural institutions like theater are confronted with new and fundamental questions. Iranian theater has been faceing significant challenges, including restrictive policymaking, inefficient management, a widening gap between artists and new audiences, as well as the impact of new technologies manifesting as imitative, commercial, or meaningless form-oriented, drama-centric productions. A theater that fails to recognize its new rationale and functions, relying on outdated content and forms within rigid frameworks (of any kind), cannot respond to the questions and needs of today’s audiences. Consequently, it is doomed to social disconnection and eventual disintegration.
The future of Iranian theater lies at the intersection of paradigmatic shifts, global megatrends, internal factors, and various uncertainties. Key challenges and uncertainties include the transition beyond text-centric drama, the accelerated pace of new technologies, and the nature of audience engagement. By maintaining current perspectives and approaches, and besieged by emerging uncertainties, Iranian theater will be propelled into unknown and perilous futures for which it is unprepared. Moreover, if existing trends continue, new and formidable competitors—such as cyberspace, home-viewing platforms, video games, and online entertainment—will pose a serious threat. To this end, there is a need for new visions and scenarios of alternative futures, enabling the sector to envision and dream about its unique capacities and characteristics in the times to come.
The primary objective of this research is to describe narratives and map out consistent and plausible scenarios for the future of Iranian theater on the 1420 (2041) horizon. Employing the “Scenario-Based Planning” methodology, this study gathered data through a systematic literature review and semi-structured interviews with experts from the fields of theater and futures studies. Data analysis was conducted using an “expert panel” and the software tools “Micmac” (for structural analysis) and “ScenarioWizard” (for scenario development).
In the course of this research, following a cross-impact analysis of influential factors, six key driving forces were identified: “governance changes at the macro-level, particularly in arts and theater,” “reflection of technological changes in arts and theater,” “economic transformations in theater,” “reflection of social transformations in the future of theater arts,” “paradigmatic, conceptual, and value-based shifts in theater arts,” and “the agency of reference groups and the professional theater community.” Two critical uncertainties—“changes in theater governance” and “the reflection of social transformations in theater”—were selected as the main axes for the scenario matrix. Accordingly, four plausible scenarios for the future of Iranian theater were developed and compared, titled: “Let Me Dance…”, “The Old Frame”, “The Clever Bird”, and “Caught in the Game”.
The findings of this research would enable policymakers and stakeholders in Iranian theater to proactively address changes with a deeper understanding of plausible futures and to take steps toward shaping a desirable prospect. Therefore, the interplay of policies, behaviors, and interactions among the key actors of Iranian theater at all levels will steer its future trajectory toward one of the plausible scenarios described in this paper.
 
 
 

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References

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Journal of Fine Arts: Performing Arts & Music
Volume 31, Issue 2
May 2026
Pages 9-25

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